C.H. Robinson: Post-Golden Week demand to tighten Asia air capacity unevenly in October
C.H. Robinson expects October air demand out of Asia to be led by technology and industrial cargo rather than e-commerce, with main-deck freighter space the main pressure point. Transatlantic capacity is available but pricing remains firm.
- C.H. Robinson expects Asia air capacity to tighten unevenly as factories restart after Golden Week.
- E-commerce plays a smaller role in this year's peak; technology, new product launches and industrial cargo lead October demand.
- Main-deck freighter space for oversized, dense, temperature-controlled and some dangerous goods is the tightest part of the market.
- Europe–North America capacity is available, but rates have not softened broadly.
In its October 2026 air freight market update, C.H. Robinson says capacity out of Asia will be tested as factories resume production after the Golden Week holiday in China. The forwarder expects pressure to build unevenly by lane and by type of cargo rather than across the whole market.
Different demand drivers this peak
According to the update, e-commerce is contributing less to this year's peak season than in previous years. Changes to US tariff rules for low-value imports have reduced some e-commerce flows into the United States. Volumes from Asia Pacific to Europe are also still below last year's level, especially on lanes that depend heavily on e-commerce.
October demand is instead expected to come mainly from technology shipments, new product introductions, industrial cargo and some urgent restocking. C.H. Robinson notes that airlines usually respond to concentrated demand by changing aircraft deployment and schedules.
Cargo profile matters for capacity
The company points out that belly space on passenger aircraft can carry much general freight but cannot replace freighters for every commodity. Oversized, dense, temperature-controlled and some hazardous goods, as well as shipments that need specific routings, often depend on main-deck capacity, which is more limited.
Asia–Europe and transatlantic
On Asia–Europe, activity is picking up after the European summer slowdown and the pre-Golden Week rush. C.H. Robinson expects peak October volumes to be concentrated in specific commodities rather than spread evenly. On Europe–North America, standard capacity remains broadly available, but pricing is holding relatively firm. Q4 schedule changes, specialised freighter requirements and high jet fuel costs all support rates.
Other market commentary this week was mixed. CEP Research reported on 2 October that demand continues to outpace capacity and rates are firming, while analysts still see little sign of a strong year-end peak.
What this means for shippers
- Shippers of oversized, heavy, temperature-controlled or dangerous goods from Asia should book main-deck space early and confirm aircraft type with their forwarder.
- General cargo that fits in belly space is likely to have more routing options, but expect tighter space on technology-heavy lanes in October.
- Asia–Europe e-commerce shippers may find capacity easier than last year, though conditions can change by lane.
- For Europe–North America, available space does not mean lower prices. Budget for firm rates and fuel-related costs.