Dimerco: Ocean congestion could push more cargo to air as the Q4 peak lasts longer
Freight forwarder Dimerco expects congested ocean services and clearer tariff direction to move more cargo onto air in the fourth quarter. The late-October switch to winter schedules is expected to reduce belly capacity on some routes.
- Dimerco expects congested ocean shipping to push more cargo onto air during the fourth quarter.
- The forwarder says the peak season has lasted longer because ocean demand has not slowed as fast as expected.
- The late-October switch to winter flight schedules usually reduces belly capacity on some long-haul routes.
Taiwanese freight forwarder Dimerco expects air cargo to benefit as shippers move cargo away from congested ocean services in the fourth quarter. It made the forecast in its October Asia Pacific Freight Report, released on 1 October. The company added that more cargo could switch to air once there is clearer direction on tariffs.
A longer peak season
According to Dimerco, ocean supply chains are still disrupted and container demand has not eased as quickly as expected. As a result, the fourth-quarter peak has lasted longer, and continued ocean congestion could send more volume to air as the season goes on.
Capacity factors to watch
A Q4 planning guide from aviation services firm ACC Aviation highlights several capacity pressures. China's Golden Week holiday (1 to 7 October) closes factories and creates a cargo surge before the break. Airlines then switch to winter schedules in late October, which reduces belly capacity on some routes as allocations and block space agreements change. The guide also notes that a shortage of wide-body aircraft is limiting both passenger and belly cargo capacity.
Where rates stood in mid-September
The latest WorldACD data available to us covers week 38 (14 to 20 September). The global average spot rate was unchanged from the week before. Spot rates from Asia Pacific and Europe each rose by about 1%, and worldwide tonnages were up 8% year on year.
| WorldACD indicator, week 38 | Value |
|---|---|
| Worldwide average spot rate | $3.45 per kg |
| Worldwide spot rate vs. previous week | Flat |
| Worldwide spot rate vs. last year | +33% |
| Asia Pacific origin spot rates vs. previous week | +1% |
| Europe origin spot rates vs. previous week | +1% |
| Worldwide full-market rates vs. last year | +24% |
What this means for shippers
- Shippers with time-sensitive cargo now on delayed ocean services may need air as a backup. Agreeing on air options early is usually cheaper than booking at the last minute.
- Plan for less belly capacity on some routes after the late-October schedule change, and check flight options and block space before the switch.
- Rates were already well above last year's levels before the main peak. Budgets for the fourth quarter should allow for further changes.