C.H. Robinson: Port congestion now ties up about 12% of global container ship capacity
Port congestion is absorbing roughly 12% of global container ship capacity, the highest share in four years, according to C.H. Robinson. Waiting times at Shanghai and Ningbo remain long, though analysts expect Golden Week to ease backlogs.
- C.H. Robinson estimates that about 12% of global container ship capacity is tied up in port congestion, the highest share in four years.
- East Asia, Northern Europe and the Indian Subcontinent are hit hardest.
- Drewry recorded average vessel waits of 82 hours at Shanghai and 56 hours at Ningbo in week 39.
- The Golden Week lull should help clear backlogs, but surplus capacity could follow.
Congestion, not a ship shortage
In its October Edge Report, published on 2 October, logistics provider C.H. Robinson said roughly 12% of the world's container ship capacity is currently held up by port congestion. That is the highest level in four years. The company stressed that the fleet itself is not short of ships. The problem is that vessels queuing at or near ports reduce the space shippers can actually use.
The report names East Asia, Northern Europe and the Indian Subcontinent as the regions where congestion has the biggest effect.
Chinese ports under pressure
Drewry data show the same problem at the Asian end of the Asia–Europe trade. In its Intra Asia Container Index commentary of 1 October, Drewry reported vessel bunching and schedule delays at Shanghai and Ningbo, with the following average waiting times in week 39:
| Port | Average vessel waiting time, week 39 |
|---|---|
| Shanghai | 82 hours |
| Ningbo | 56 hours |
Golden Week may bring relief, then surplus
Analysts expect some easing in October. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said port congestion in Asia is easing as the typhoon season ends. He added that Golden Week and other national holidays in China are cutting exports in the first week of the month. Drewry also expects the holiday dip in volumes to help clear backlogs.
In late September, Sea-Intelligence warned that the clearance of delayed vessels could be followed by oversupply on Asia–North Europe. Lower exports after Golden Week, combined with capacity freed up by the shorter Suez Canal routing, could push carriers into last-minute voyage cancellations. In its 1 October update, Drewry counted five blank sailings announced for the following week, down from six the week before.
What this means for shippers
- Plan for longer and less predictable transit times on Asia–Europe services, particularly for cargo loading at Shanghai and Ningbo.
- Add buffer time to Q4 planning for time-critical goods.
- Expect possible short-notice blank sailings after Golden Week. Confirm bookings and rollover terms with your forwarder.
- Vessels arriving in bunches at Northern European ports can eat into terminal free time. Check your demurrage and detention exposure.