Xeneta: transpacific spot rates have peaked but will stay high through year-end
Xeneta says Far East–US spot rates reached their 2026 peak with a small rise on 1 October and expects a sizeable correction but not a collapse. Transatlantic rates from North Europe also eased.
- Xeneta says Far East–US spot rates edged up on 1 October but have now reached their 2026 peak.
- The average Far East–US East Coast rate was $11,523 per FEU and the US West Coast rate was $8,346 per FEU.
- Over the next three months, Xeneta expects a sizeable correction but not a collapse.
Spot rates on the transpacific trade reached their highest point for 2026 in early October, according to Xeneta's weekly update of 2 October. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said rates from the Far East to the US rose again on 1 October. He said the market has now reached its peak following the Hormuz crisis.
Small weekly gains, very large year-to-date increases
Xeneta put the average Far East–US West Coast spot rate at $8,346 per FEU on 1 October, up 1.4% in a week. Far East–US East Coast rose 0.7% to $11,523 per FEU. Both lanes are more than 330% above Xeneta's 28 February benchmark, set before the Hormuz crisis. The gap between East Coast and West Coast rates has grown to $3,177 per FEU, compared with $772 in late February.
Drewry's World Container Index for the same date shows a similar picture. Shanghai–New York rose 1% to $10,428 per 40ft container, and Shanghai–Los Angeles was unchanged at $7,835.
| Lane | Source | Rate (USD/40ft), 1 Oct | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Far East–US West Coast | Xeneta | 8,346 | +1.4% |
| Far East–US East Coast | Xeneta | 11,523 | +0.7% |
| Shanghai–New York | Drewry WCI | 10,428 | +1% |
| Shanghai–Los Angeles | Drewry WCI | 7,835 | 0% |
| North Europe–US East Coast | Xeneta | 2,893 | -2.2% |
Why the market is turning
According to Sand, the change in direction is partly because port congestion in Asia is easing now that typhoon season is ending. Lower Chinese exports during Golden Week and national holidays in the first week of October are adding to this.
"Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse." – Peter Sand, Xeneta
Xeneta expects US East Coast rates to fall more steeply than West Coast rates because they start from a higher level. Within three months, it sees East Coast spot rates at $6,000–7,000 per FEU and West Coast rates at about $4,500–5,500. On the transatlantic, North Europe–US East Coast fell 2.2% to $2,893 per FEU.
What this means for shippers
- European exporters shipping to the US East Coast have seen transatlantic spot rates ease slightly. Keep an eye on this lane when planning Q4 cargo.
- Transpacific rates are still far higher than Asia–Europe rates. Shippers on Europe–Asia lanes should keep watching how carriers deploy capacity between trades.
- Xeneta expects rates to stay high for the rest of the year, so a sharp drop in costs is unlikely before year-end.